Cannabis Sector Poised for New Growth Phase Amid U.S. Rescheduling and European Expansion
In a May 14 2026 interview on BNN Bloomberg’s “Hot Picks” segment, Kenric Tyghe – Special Situations Analyst at Canaccord Genuity – outlined why the cannabis industry appears to be entering a fresh growth cycle. He pointed to three main drivers: the impending rescheduling of marijuana in the United States, improving conditions in the Canadian market, and expanding medical‑focused opportunities in Europe.
U.S. Rescheduling as a Potential Catalyst
Tyghe noted that recent announcements regarding the rescheduling of cannabis at the federal level could act as a “new day” for U.S. operators. While medical rescheduling has already been approved, he expects a high probability of broader rescheduling in the near term, which would unlock access to banking, interstate commerce, and larger investor pools. This regulatory shift, he argued, is the primary reason he views the U.S. segment as still being in its early stages despite the maturity of the Canadian market.
Canadian Market: From Oversupply to Modest Growth
Although the Canadian cannabis sector has struggled with oversupply and pricing pressure, Tyghe observed that the market is now finding a healthier equilibrium. International demand has absorbed much of the excess supply, leading to modest growth, reduced pricing pressure, and improved profitability for Canadian producers. He emphasized that the Canadian market is “looking healthier than it has in a while,” with growth re‑emerging after a multi‑year slump.
Hot Picks: Trulieve, Verano, and Curaleaf
During the interview, Tyghe highlighted three U.S.‑focused multi‑state operators (MSOs) that he believes are well‑positioned to benefit from the evolving landscape.
- Trulieve (TRUL) – Described as the dominant player in Florida, Trulieve commands EBITDA margins in excess of 35 % and derives more than 80 % of its revenue from medical cannabis. Tyghe praised the company’s strong lobbying presence, operational consistency, and a footprint that has proved difficult for competitors to erode.
- Verano (VRNO) – Holding the No. 2 spot in Florida, Verano trades at less than four times projected 2026 EBITDA, offering significant option value. Tyghe noted that despite being an “orphan” early on, Verano has built a solid operating platform and remains attractively valued relative to peers.
- Curaleaf (CURA) – Curaleaf stands out as the only major U.S. MSO with a substantial footprint in Europe, particularly Germany and the U.K. Tyghe highlighted that the company’s early European expansion creates a premium valuation that reflects the optionality of one of the sector’s largest long‑term growth markets.
Medical Focus and European Opportunity
Tyghe observed a clear shift toward medical cannabis exposure across jurisdictions. In Europe, Germany’s rapid adult‑use program has exceeded expectations, while the United Kingdom and Switzerland are advancing their own pilots and regulatory frameworks. He argued that companies with established medical operations and early European entrants, such as Curaleaf, are best placed to capture the continent’s long‑term demand.
Risks and Outlook
While optimistic, Tyghe cautioned that risks remain. The primary concern is the potential for oversupply as new international markets open, echoing the lessons learned from Canada’s earlier glut. He noted, however, that industry participants appear to be exercising greater discipline in capacity planning, reducing the likelihood of repeat excesses. Execution risk—particularly in navigating heterogeneous regulatory regimes across Europe—also looms as a factor that could differentiate winners from laggards.
Overall, Tyghe’s assessment suggests that the cannabis sector is transitioning from a period of consolidation to a phase defined by regulatory tailwinds in the U.S., stabilizing fundamentals in Canada, and high‑growth opportunities in Europe. Investors seeking exposure to these dynamics may find value in operators with strong medical margins, disciplined cost structures, and early international footholds.
Read the full transcript and original interview on BNN Bloomberg: Here
